Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
