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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It frequently serves as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct path: the coach who engineered the most dramatic improvement receives the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or merely the biggest surprise.

Yet the current race is distinctly unique. The group of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division champions falling away and longtime strugglers ascending together. During an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this wild and fun year, he's competing with five other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to spin magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal year, he would be the runaway favorite. But this is not a typical season!

The area where his case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still